Alan Fisher's World

Obama's Sheffield moment?

Sunday 26 October
While it appears that all eyes are focused on the American election, it looks as if Israel will be going back to the polls. This is an election which will have a significant impact on any attempts to broker peace in the Middle East.
     At the moment, the Israeli government are involved in talks with the Palestinians and, through the Turks, with the Syrians. Tzipi Livni is the former Mossad agent who now heads Israel's biggest party, Kadima. When she took over, one of the smaller parties in the ruling coalition pulled out. For the past few weeks she has been talking to the other parties but now accepts there is no option but to hold elections.
     It appears the president, Shimon Peres, agrees, but there will be a lot of waiting. Legislators have three weeks to agree on a date – parliament will be dissolved and the poll will be held sometime in February.
     Livni's main opposition will come from Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seen as a hardliner. Since she took over from Ehud Olmert as leader of Kadima, their ratings have gone up and for the first time in a long time, they are ahead in the polls. The Israelis hoped a peace deal could be put together before George Bush left office in January. The Palestinians wanted it too. But George Bush wanted it most of all – a legacy he could be proud of. Now all the election creates is political paralysis.
     The Americans have been accused of 'an act of terrorism' over what Syria claims was an attack on civilians at a farm eight miles inside its territory. Four US aircraft are reported to have flown across the Iraqi border in pursuit of 'foreign fighters' threatening their forces. Damascus says the eight who died, including three children, were unarmed civilians.
     As with the attack in Pakistan last week which hit a school, the Americans are saying nothing.

Monday 27 October
Australia is to look into allegations that 20 Afghan asylum seekers were killed by the Taliban after being sent home. Those who died were among 400 asylum seekers refused entry to Australia by the previous government. Forced returns have now been cancelled by the Australians. The Afghans had been held on the Pacific island of Nauru but had their asylum claims rejected, having been assured by immigration officials that it was safe to go home. The United Nations Refugee Convention does not prevent asylum seekers being returned to dangerous places.

Tuesday 28 October
The FBI has uncovered a plot to kill Barack Obama. Two neo-Nazi skinheads planned to rob a gunstore then target a mainly black high school. Their intention was to kill 88 black people and behead another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are apparently symbolic in the white supremacist community. They then planned to kill the black senator or die trying.
     Meanwhile at a Palin campaign rally in Iowa, a supporter managed to shout the N-word as she was listing what she said Obama was. Incredibly, the vice-presidential candidate said nothing, stumbled a bit on her speech and then continued. No remonstration, no admonition, nothing. Race is a issue in this election but it's one that few people are talking about. It doesn't represent the America I know, but it's there, lurking in the shadows.

Wednesday 29 October
Barack Obama has gone on TV in the US, coast to coast, in a paid-for half hour broadcast in peak time. It shows how much money the campaign has generated that they can afford the hundreds of millions of dollars this has cost.
     While the half hour was slick and well produced and the candidate looked calm and assured, I can't help wondering if this could turn out to be some sort of Sheffield moment for the Democrats. Remember 1992, Kinnock riding high in the polls and they had a victory rally in Yorkshire before the actual vote? It turned out to be a disaster for Labour and put John Major in office (if not actually in power according to his mate Norman Lamont) for the next five years.
      I suspect, looking across all the polls in most of the states, Obama is going to win, but then who thought Al Gore would lose? There's talk coming out of the McCain camp of an October surprise, something they've had for a while which they believe could de-rail Obama's campaign. If they have it – and it's a big if – they're obviously waiting to the last minute to use it. The Republican candidate has dismissed his rival's broadcast as an info-mercial but it's still running on many networks.
     It promises to be a fascinating election and I'm delighted I'm going to be there to cover it.
 
Thursday 30 October
A suicide bomber has walked into the Information Ministry in Kabul and blown himself up, killing four other people. I know the building well. It sits in the heart of the city and as usual there are security checks as you enter the compound and the building. Yet this person walked in and detonated the device. The Taliban say they did it. It shows that they can now essentially strike anywhere in the city – and that must be a worry to the Karzai Government. While the American election may be judged on the economy by voters at home, the world will make its assessment on how the new president handles conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.