It was always going to happen

The
Scottish
Reviewers
Alan Fisher on the renewed violence in Northern Ireland

For those who follow Northern Ireland, the events on Saturday night didn't come as a surprise. Since November dissident republicans have launched 15 attacks using bombs, bobby traps, landmines and guns. Few were reported in any detail in the newspapers because Northern Ireland 'bores' editors and, of course, there is the prevailing wisdom that after 30 years of 'The Troubles' the province is at peace.
     A deadly attack was considered inevitable by the security forces. My own contacts told me that the idea of a spectacular had gone away. Those opposed to the politcal process were more likely to target 'a couple of cops on patrol in the street'. The reaction in Antrim was clear as people of all faiths and political persuasion took to the street and insisted there should be no going back to the dark days of the seventies, eighties and nineties. There are young children growing up in Northern Ireland who can't remember a time when sectarian conflict stalked the streets, when people were killed for their religion or for the uniform they wore or even the job they had. They have enjoyed the so-called peace dividend.
     The British government has pumped billions into the province to create employment and support investment: new buildings are springing up all over the place. Northern Ireland is truly different from the place I called home in the 1990s. But not different enough for some. When the IRA effectively announced it was done, that politics was the long war to be fought, some grabbed their guns and went home in the huff. For them, the military campaign had to continue. The Brits had to be forced out of the north-east corner of Ireland by force and the island united once more. And so they splt from the IRA. There was the Real IRA and the Continuity IRA. Their campaigns continued, most notoriously with the Real IRA's Omagh bomb, the worst single atrocity in the 30 years of violence.
     After the outrage and the condemnation, these groups had less of a voice, less influence, but they never went away. A fact reinforced by the call last week by Northern Ireland's top policeman, Sir Hugh Orde, to ask for army special forces to help monitor them. He knew they were growing more threatening but the bigger danger was the split in their ranks making them harder to follow and trace.
     Sinn Fein, despite its frequent denials the IRA' s political wing, warned against it. It said special forces being deployed was never good and should be avoided. The attack makes that harder for them to argue. It puts them in a difficult position and the people behind the attack, the Real IRA, will be delighted: a murderous assault which claimed 'Crown Forces' and put the dominant republican party in a place where they will anger supporters if they change their position.
     And so the inevitable question in the interviews I've done since the attack: what does it all mean for the peace process? In general, nothing. The condemnation by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness will help. In what was a deeply significant and even historical moment, McGuinness, a former IRA commander, backed the police manhunt and insisted 'That war is over'. Anything less and their government partners in Stormont, the DUP, might have walked, threatening all the democratic institutions. Now they'll stay.
     It will cause some difficulties. And if there are more attacks, and there will be, that will increase those problems. What is important here is context. The splinter groups are small, maybe numbering 500 people altogether, supporters and active members. They are poorly funded and crucially don't command a groundswell of public support.
     After all that Northern Ireland has gone through, the path to a lasting and sustained peace was always going to be troublesome. But if you're old enough, think back 20 years and ask if you ever thought we would be where we are today? The IRA guns silent, loyalist paramilitaries on ceasefire, no troops on the streets and Sinn Fein sitting in a devolved government in Belfast with what was Ian Paisley's party? Thought not.