Fall of Europe's Harry Potter

The
Scottish
Reviewers II
Alan Fisher on another victim of the financial crisis

Ferenc Gyurcsany

Saturday 21 March 
The global financial crisis has claimed another significant political scalp. Hungary's prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, is to stand down. His party has been well down in the polls for more than a year, and there's no sign of an immediate recovery. The Harry Potter look-alike made history as the first post-communist Hungarian leader to win re-election, but a leaked tape caught him confessing that he lied to the electorate about the country's poor financial state to secure the victory. That wasn't enough to finish him off but it sparked riots which lasted more than week in 2006. I was in the main city square in Budapest as protestors booed the prime minister during a ceremony to mark the Hungarian revolution. It is such a solemn day – such actions were almost unprecedented and were a precursor to the violence later that night.
     Last year he promised that if his party's ratings hadn't improved, he would quit. They're now even lower in the polls. Hungary was one of the first Eastern European countries to look for help from the International Monetary Fund and in October they received £17 billion. Gyurcsany managed to reduce the budget deficit but that was done through higher taxes and cuts in spending – a formula never likely to win public approval. Latvia, Iceland and Hungary now have different leaders while Britain and France are among the countries whose leaders are low in the polls. Events elsewhere must be giving them even more sleepless nights.
 
Monday 23 March
The United Nations' leading human rights investigator has questioned the legality of Israel's war in Gaza. Richard Falk says there should be an independent inquiry to investigate possible war crimes by Israel and Hamas. The former Princeton University professor insists that, to determine if a war was legal, it's necessary to assess if the Israelis could differentiate between civilian and military targets in Gaza. His report carries the line: 'If it is not possible to do so, then launching the attacks is inherently unlawful, and would seem to constitute a war crime of the greatest magnitude under international law'.
     Mr Falk has been highly critical of Israel in the past and he stands accused of being heavily biased. Danny Seaman, the combative head of the Israel government's press office, has already rejected the ideas contained in the report.
     Here are some important things to remember. Israel was coming under daily rocket fire in Southern Israel and felt it had to do something about it. The borders out of Gaza are controlled by Israel, so when the war started, the people had nowhere to run. Israel insists it did its best to reduce civilian casualties. More than 1,000 people died in the fighting which lasted three weeks. Israeli soldiers have said that civilians were knowingly killed and the rules of engagement were not clear. Israel's defence minister says it has the most 'ethical' army in the world. 
     And the most important thing – despite the ceasefire – is that this conflict is still going on both in word and deed. 

Tuesday 24 March 
Across Serbia today, air raid sirens sounded marking 10 years since NATO launched an extensive bombing campaign against the country. For 11 weeks the alliance that was formed to protect member countries against outside aggression bombed a European neighbour. The Serbs say more than 2,500 civilians were killed including 89 children. Human Rights Watch put the figure at closer to 500. Yet no matter the figure, each one represented an individual loss, a separate tragedy.
     As Anthony Silkoff argued in the Scottish Review earlier this week, there is a case for taking strong military action when there is a real humanitarian need. Serbia is a prime example. 
     Ten years ago, Serb forces were committing widespread atrocities in the then province of Kosovo. I stood in Macedonia as thousands of refugees desperately sought safety. I watched old women and young children walk for miles along a railway line, hoping they would soon find some sort of sanctuary. I remember the sudden realisation of how few men of fighting age were among those hoping that Macedonia would protect them from the murders, rapes and brutal victimisation. It was also called ethnic cleansing. Every one of the refugees had an awful story to tell, a moment of horror to relive.
     Under huge international pressure, NATO decided it couldn't stand by any longer and so, without a UN resolution, it launched wave after wave of attacks against Serbia. Ground forces eventually moved in and cleared the Serbs from Kosovo, which declared independence a year ago.
     At the time, it seemed the right thing. The Serbs were out of control and the toll of misery was growing. Yet the airstrikes killed innocent people and inflicted their own horrors. In Kosovo last year, I expressed to a few friends from Kosovo that perhaps the airstrikes were wrong. I was howled down by people who lived through the worst of days. And yet in Belgrade last summer I found the lasting hatred felt towards the West by people who couldn't believe their city was being bombarded by countries they considered friends and allies.
     The atrocities were brought to an end but the consequences ripple on. After Iraq, the world might now be reluctant to agree to military intervention quite so easily. While that debate rages on, Darfur continues to trouble the world.

Alan Fisher is an Al Jazeera correspondent