World View

Warm earth, hot air

With the clock ticking, this was meant to be the final step towards a global agreement. The gathering in Barcelona was to produce the next blueprint for the fight against climate change – the document all leaders would sign next month in Copenhagen. Only it hasn't and they won't.
     Behind closed doors, the splits are as wide as ever. Africa wants more action from richer countries, frustrated that their carbon emission cuts don't go far enough. Lamumba Di-Apping is a Sudanese diplomat and the chairman of the G77 group in the United Nations, which represents the world's developing nations. He blames richer countries for not taking leadership on this important issue: 'We have reached the point where people are dying. They were dying in the Philippines while we were (talking climate change) in Bangkok. There are 10 million people in Kenya as we speak who are malnourished. This is the result of climate change. All of this should be in the minds of Western leaders. They should not think in narrow terms of domestic interests. That is the way they have dealt with their obligations. This is not the way to address global problems.'
     Augustin Njamnshi is here, lobbying for Pan African Climate. He told me: 'What we're asking for is that the developed countries adapt and change their way of life so that life will be much more comfortable and tolerable on earth. Climate change is forcing the poor people to adapt. They have no choice'.
     Africa wants cuts of 40% using 1990 emissions as the baseline. The EU says it will commit to at least 20% perhaps going as high as 30%. Australia, Japan and New Zealand have set targets at a lot less than 40%. Canada is considered a joke among climate campaigners, particularly when politicians talk about cuts compared to what future emissions might be. And there will be no commitment from the US until Congress discuss the issue.
     That means the best that can be hoped from Copenhagen is a political agreement. It will not be legally binding but it will be a framework for the future, with all the important numbers missing. The European Commission's main negotiator rejects the idea that the Barcelona meeting has been a failure. He sees it as an important step in the process: 'You will still have a result and a deal in Copenhagen that should allow implementation of emission reduction measures'. When I ask how long it will take for a full climate change treaty to be agreed, he talks in terms of six months to a year.
     Some of the protestors here acknowledge that while not being the huge success that was being forecast a year ago, Barcelona does mark slow and steady progress to a climate change deal. 'Better to have a good agreement in a year than a bad one now' is how one delegate summed up the week's events. 'They're still talking, still moving forward' argues Duncan Marsh from the Nature Conservancy. 'And there's growing evidence that government leaders are engaged behind the scenes at unprecedented levels.' Yet, like others, he insists there has to be a deal in months.
     The global financial crisis has undoubtedly hit developments here. Developing nations can't say how much they will cut emissions until they know how much aid they will receive. Richer nations won't commit to aid figures while their economies are struggling and they know how much it will cost.
     Outside, the campaign groups are inventive in the efforts to attract media attention. Last Friday it was the 'green spacemen' of Greenpeace who were demanding to be taken to the 'climate change leader' making the point that no-one seems to be driving the discussions to a conclusion.
     When the world leaders gather in Denmark next month, there will be more demonstrations. And if they don't give an indication that a deal is close, those protests will be louder – and angrier.

Alan Fisher is an Al Jazeera correspondent