Alan Fisher's World

A difficult call

Barack Obama needs Turkey. It's a growing power in the Middle East, a country trusted by many. It is a largely Muslim nation, with a secular constitution and looks to the west and the EU for its future. It is a key component in the ongoing issue with Iran, offering to reprocess nuclear material for fuel. 
     Like many US presidents he feels an instinctive bond with Israel. Yet the deadly commando raid on the Gaza-bound aid flotilla is another low point in relations between the two countries and a significant blow to Washington's desire to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians, which would improve US relations with the rest of the Arab world.
     Obama's next step could create significant difficulties for his Middle East policy. So far, the only reaction he's given to the bloody incident in international waters early on Tuesday is to voice 'deep regret'. The White House say the planned meeting between the president and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be rescheduled 'at the first opportunity'. Mr Netanyahu was due in Washington on Tuesday but cut short his North American visit to deal with the fall-out from the flotilla raid.
     The White House has talked about possibly holding an 'independent' inquiry into the incident as the president has expressed 'the importance of learning all the facts and circumstances'.

Both sides are fighting the public relations war and as such there are conflicting accounts of what really happened during the raids. Activists on the ships claim Israelis opened fire without any provocation. The Israelis insist they only used live rounds in self defence, believing their lives were at risk. The Israeli defence force has released a video showing clashes on board the ships. Missing from the edited footage is the killing of the activists.
     What really happened in those frenetic, terrifying moments will remain in dispute for days if now for weeks. Yet in many people's minds – especially in Muslim countries – the perceptions of events are fixed. They include:
     • Israeli confronted a six-ship aid flotilla in international waters using lethal force
     • The convoy and those on board wanted to break the three-year blockade of Gaza imposed after Hamas seized control of the strip almost three years ago
     • The ongoing blockade and the Gaza war in winter 2008-2009 to stop rocket fire from Gaza into Israelis towns and villages, has already fuelled anti-Israeli sentiment in Muslim countries and in some places in Europe
     • Turkey has searched the ship, vetted the activists on board and concluded that it contained nothing but humanitarian supplies and there were no weapons on board
     The raid centred on the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmara ferry. There were massive protests in Turkey, where the government unofficially supported the mission and home for most of those killed. Turkey is one of Israel's few Muslim allies, but diplomatic niceties were set aside.
     Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of 'state terrorism'. The government recalled its ambassador and called off planned military exercises with the Jewish state. As a member of the UN security council, Turkey called for an emergency session and for an impartial investigation of the deadly raid.
     President Obama insisted when he took office that Israeli-Palestinian peace was top of his international agenda. Yet Israel, ignoring demands to stop construction of West Bank settlements and end expansion of Jewish neighbourhoods in east Jerusalem, put relations between the two into a deep freeze. Then there was the massive snub when a major east Jerusalem construction project was announced as vice-president Joe Biden was visiting to reassure Israel of US support. The Americans were diplomatic in their language but privately were seething at what they saw as a calculated humiliation.
     Yet even after this, George Mitchell, the impressive US special envoy to the Middle East, managed to get Israelis and Palestinians to open indirect talks. Both sides recognised that talks will be the only way the issue can be addressed. There is some hope. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas denounced the ship raid as a 'sinful massacre' but indicated that the talks would continue.
    
President Obama spoke to the Turkish prime minister by phone late on Tuesday night. He is under pressure to condemn the Israeli ship raid clearly and without equivocation. If he does not, US-Turkish relations will be set back. The US has an airbase in Turkey and there could be further problems inside NATO, where Turkey is the only Muslim member. And it will further complicate US efforts against the Iranian nuclear programme.
     The Nobel Prize winner has a difficult decision. Upset Israel and risk significant Jewish support for Democrat candidates in November's mid-term elections, and by implication his entire domestic agenda and the last two years of his time in the White House. It may also have implications for the peace process. Or he could anger Turkey and the rest of the Muslim world. 
     He has to make the most astute call of his diplomatic career – and he has to do it soon.
 
Alan Fisher is an Al Jazeera correspondent

Professor Andrew Hook notes:

A striking feature of the Israeli attempt to defend and justify the deadly attack on the Mavi Marmara is the use by its apologists of the terms 'lynch', 'lynched' and 'lynching'. We are asked to believe that the commandos descending on the ship from hovering helicopters, or boarding it from launches, were being 'lynched' by civilians on the deck.
     All one can say is that this must be the first time in history that the 'victims' of a lynching were in fact fully armed with tazers, tear gas, stun grenades, and guns with rubber bullets and live ammunition. Would that the real victims of lynching in the American South had been so lucky! The question the Israeli public relations spokesmen have to answer is this:  when was the last time a lynching took place in which not one of those being lynched died whereas at least 10 of the alleged lynchers did?