Impotent about Iran

INTERNATIONAL II
Alan Fisher on the ineffectiveness of
current protests

Saturday 25 July
Across the world, in 80 cities, people are protesting. They've taken to the streets to pressure the Iranian government to stop its crackdown against those protesting last month's presidential election result. Hundreds in some places, a handful in others, but all with the same determination, the same message.
     The organisers are a group called United4Iran. They say they're a non-partisan collection of individuals and human rights groups and include Amnesty International and the Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu. They want the United Nations to investigate claims of torture, rape and other rights abuses.
     In London, the turnout outside the Iranian Embassy near Kensington Gardens is no more than a few hundred. The police seem slightly on edge, but none of them look old enough to remember the protest in 1984 which sparked the famous siege which was eventually ended by the SAS. Then a gunshot was fired from inside the building, killing WPC Yvonne Fletcher. Perhaps it's a reflection of the criticism they have faced for the way they've handled more recent demonstrations.
     It seems the protest has split into two distinct groups, both struggling to make themselves heard over the other. When one section starts to speak, the music from the other side is cranked up. It's hardly an inspiring image of unity.
     One man tells me he came out to show his solidarity for his people back home. 'They have tried to protest. They can't but we can. So we must'. One young woman says: 'People are being punished for having their own views and opinions and that's driving the action worldwide'. The problem is that few of these voices of protest will be heard in Iran as there is little coverage, official or otherwise, of the day of action. The Iranian government and its supporters say the people have spoken and any change will come working within the framework of Iranian law and with no outside interference. Kian Mokhtari is a political commentator in Tehran who sums it up like this: 'People who live overseas live within a Christian or a Judaic culture. A few hundred thousand people who live overseas cannot impose their will on 70 million people in Iran'.
     The organisers will be disappointed. The turnout is nowhere near as big as they had hoped. And the reality is that despite the frustration and angry voices, it won't make a difference to what is happening inside Iran.

Sunday 26 July
In the quiet of a Sunday morning – at the beginning of the parliamentary recess – the influential Foreign Affairs Select Committee has tried to move the debate in the Middle East. In its latest report, it has urged Britain to talk to moderates within Hamas. It makes the point that the policy of shunning the Palestinian group in charge of Gaza has shown little sign of success.
     Tony Blair holds the post of envoy to the Middle East acting on behalf of the Quarter – the United Nations, the EU, the US and Russia. He has held the post for two years. Only Russia has any links with Hamas. It's the second time in two years that the committee has made the call. In February, the British government had a policy of not talking to Lebanon's Hezbollah grouping. But that changed in March. The committee says Hamas needs incentives to change its position and the prospect of talks might help that process. The reality is that the British government is unlikely to make a substantial shift in policy. And so, for many, this is an important report which will disappear in the quiet of a Sunday morning.

Monday 27 July
Now there are moves to bring the Taliban in Afghanistan into talks – a diplomatic acceptance that the current policy simply won't work. Richard Holbrooke – the impressive US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan – and Britain's Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, say that those who renounce extremism can be brought into the diplomatic process. Setting aside for a moment the difficult question of who decides what's extreme, there's an acceptance that stability won't come where armed groups are fighting for superiority.
     I draw parallels here with Northern Ireland. Before the IRA laid down its weapons, there were some carefully co-ordinated speeches which helped pave the way. I remember in 1992 the then Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Brooke making a speech in Coleraine where he said the British had no strategic interest in Northern Ireland. It floated past many people except one seasoned Ulster observer who told me this was an important flag to someone. And so it proved.
     Diplomatic representatives of the two largest fighting forces in Afghanistan say they will bring people previously regarded as 'outsiders' into the political mainstream. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said more often than not over the past 18 months that he'd be willing to talk, and there have been not-so-secret discussions between the Saudis and the Taliban.
     There's something going on – and it's certainly worth watching the little stuff since its importance will soon become very clear.

Tuesday 28 July
There are no British troops officially in Iraq. The formal right for them to remain was due to expire on 31 July, and the Iraqi government hasn't yet extended it, so 150 personnel have been moved to Kuwait. The mandate hasn't yet received its important third reading in Iraq's parliament. The remaining service personnel are mainly navy who were there to train the new Iraqi navy. The British want to play by the legal rulebook, so have pulled their people out until the situation is clarified. The Iraqi parliament is about to break up for the summer and then there will be Ramadan. There's a chance no new deal will be ratified until the end of September.

Thursday 30 July
This morning I'm in London. There's a conference to launch the government's inquiry into the Iraq War. It's being chaired by Sir John Chilcot. Tony Blair has privately expressed his concern that the inquiry should not be a quasi-trial and it should be about lessons learned. The inquiry covers six years of military operations and of course the six-month run-up to the war in 2003. It's not clear if it will actually consider whether going to war was legal.
     It's hoped by the politicians that it will take no more than a year, which places the final report conveniently after the next election. One thing to remember here – the Saville inquiry into Bloody Sunday in Northern Ireland began in 1998, yet after years of hearings, we still don't have the final report. The Iraq inquiry has a lot more ground to cover.