The Cliffhanger

The strange death of
unionist Scotland

David Torrance

It's a piece of political trivia often trotted out to surprise and titillate: did you know that in 1955 the Conservatives became the only political party ever to capture a majority of seats and votes in Scotland? Or is the lesson of the tale how the mighty have fallen?
     Although true, this factoid ought to be treated with caution. Not only was there little or no nationalist presence in this age of Churchill and Eden, but the Liberals were – beyond the likes of Jo Grimond in Orkney and Shetland – a political irrelevance. The Scottish Unionists (as the party was then known), meanwhile, relied upon the support of six Liberal Unionists who took the Scottish Tory whip and one of whom, the late Jack Maclay, later became Harold Macmillan's Secretary of State for Scotland.
     Nevertheless, particularly compared with the 16.7% of the vote managed by the rebranded Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party at last week's general election, this piece of trivia demonstrates just how far the so-called natural party of government has slipped since the glory days of paternalist Tory rule from grouse moors and Dover House.
     But the decline, contrary to popular belief, was not uniform. The rot only set in at the 1964 and 1966 general elections; there was a partial recovery during the Scottish Secretaryship of Gordon Campbell between 1970-74 (the first incumbent to hear 'no mandate' cry); then a sharp decline between the two general elections of 1974; and, ironically, a reasonable recovery under Margaret Thatcher's leadership in 1979, only slipping back to 1974 levels in 1987. In 1992, to the commentariat's obvious surprise, the party's share of the vote recovered (modestly) once again.
     Since 1992, however, the party's vote share north of the border has declined at every election. There is scant comfort in the fact that it actually increased by 0.9% last week, cruelly short of one whole percentage point and all the more humiliating as a result. With only one Scottish Tory MP and likely a minority Conservative government at Westminster, it is the much anticipated 'doomsday scenario' of 1987, only 23 years late.

The obvious difference now, of course, is the existence of a devolved Scottish Parliament, not that that will prevent the SNP (the signs are that Labour and the Lib Dems will restrain themselves) resorting to political slogans of campaigns past. Constitutionally, politically and legally the Tories do have a mandate to govern Scotland; political credibility and legitimacy are another matter.
     There is no use ignoring the problem, the temptation of the party since the late 1980s, while the inevitable 'root and branch' review is unlikely to discover why the Scottish Tory tree is apparently dying. To be fair to the party, it has tried everything short of voluntary dissolution in an attempt to get back on track. Individual Tories, as Annabel Goldie proves, are popular in Scotland, while the party's policy platform contains little that could cause offence to any but the most sensitive left-wingers. It may even be that there is no solution.
     Some, I realise, will relish this situation, but making Scotland a 'Tory-free zone', as many wished to do in the 1980s, and perhaps still do, was never a laudable or democratic aim. The fact is that Conservatism can still attract the support of between one sixth and one fifth of Scots, which isn't far short of what the SNP and Liberal Democrats managed last week. No one, however, claims that Nationalism or Liberalism is dead in Scotland. Nor is Conservatism, but it is certainly in need of heavy medication.
     Thus the problem is one of perception and representation, the perception – as demonstrated by the swing to Labour – that the Tories are still inherently wicked, and an electoral system which rewards the SNP and Lib Dems with several MPs and the Tories just one. At this point I wimp out and offer no answers to these seemingly intractable problems. An intellectual cop-out, I admit, but it is for those in the party, rather than detached observers better at describing problems than solutions, to at least try.
     For if they don't, the intellectual life of Scotland will be strangled further. A rarely-acknowledged side-effect of Tory decline north of the border has been a reluctance to discuss, even in the most superficial terms, serious reform (not even necessarily right-wing reform) of education, health, social security and local government. Such talk is considered beyond the pale, much like the political party which just half a century ago reigned supreme.

David Torrance is a writer, broadcaster and political historian. He is the biographer of George Younger