The first minister is

leading his party up the

garden path

Dick Mungin

 

Since the nationalist parliamentary landslide in May the febrile reaction of the Scottish and UK media has been matched only by that of the wilder fringe of SNP supporters who have been filling internet chat rooms with speculation over the form a new Scottish currency might take, crown or merk, and the possibility of the British army heading north after a 'Yes' vote in the referendum. Titter ye not: I'm serious. The media seem to believe that our first minister is indeed capable of walking on water – a belief that Alex himself has long held – by delivering a 'Yes' vote in an independence referendum around the year 2015.
     It would appear also that elements of the UK political establishment are suffering from the same hallucination. Why else would John Major, a once sworn enemy of devolution, openly call for full fiscal autonomy with a consequent reduction in the number of Scottish MPs at Westminster? Some might argue that he's really interested in the 'disappearing' of the tribe of Scottish Labour MPs who are utterly essential to any possibility of that party gaining an electoral majority.
     It's also been suggested that Major is coat trailing for the prime minister. His proposals were, however, gratefully received in one very surprising quarter. Angus Robertson MP, the party's campaign manager and a graduate cum laude of the Salmond school of loyal lieutenants, somewhat oleaginously declared on the SNP website that 'these are welcome comments to the constitutional debate and a really serious contribution'. Do Salmond and Robertson know something that the rest of us should be told?
     The answer may lie in a careful analysis of Scottish electoral facts and figures. The conclusion could be drawn that the first minister is leading his party up the garden path and they're not going to like the view when they get there.
     The Inverclyde by-election of 30 June provides the first clue. Having drunk deep of the sweeping electoral landslide in the previous month's Scottish parliament elections, the SNP were confident of victory in Greenock. The comparable constituency in that election just failed, by a very narrow margin, to return an SNP candidate. This time party workers swarmed the campaign, ministers past and present toured the high street and council estates and El Presidente himself clocked up seven visits including an election night blitzkreig on the polling stations.
     The result : a comfortable Labour victory albeit with a reduced majority. The SNP almost doubled their share of the vote from 17.5% in the 2010 general election to 33% while the Lib Dems collapsed in favour of the SNP in an even more spectacular fashion than in the Scottish parliament elections. This time their candidate polled a mere 627 votes. At least it was more than the UKIP candidate achieved. The very interesting statistic is that the parties in favour of the continuation of the union still attracted 67% of the votes cast while the SNP garnered the remaining 33%. The turnout at 28,097 (45.5%) was much lower than in 2010 when 37,512 (63.4%) of voters made the journey to the polling booths.

 

     It's a given that SNP voters are more likely than others to turn up on the day so even a return to a higher turnout figure is very unlikely to bring any comfort to nationalist circles. The simple fact is that if such a voting pattern pertains in Inverclyde when the referendum comes around and is replicated in other hitherto safe Labour seats it is very difficult indeed to see any majority for independence stacking up.
     Looking at the clues provided by past general election results brings equally bad news to those of a nationalist persuasion. In 1997 the three main unionist parties in Scotland attracted 76% of votes cast with the SNP on 22%; 2001 shows the figures as 75% and 20%; 2005 was 78% and 18%; 2010 as 77% and 20% respectively. While it's a pollster's cliché to state that we Scots 'loan' our votes to the SNP for Holyrood elections and redeem them for the benefit of our traditional party at Westminster elections, it is none the less a very hard political fact. Any political studies student would see that, in this case, unlike the financial services disclaimer, past performance is a guide to future performance. Our first minister, with his background as a talented economist, will undoubtedly know that despite a stunning victory in terms of seats won at the recent Holyrood elections he faces a titanic task in convincing Scots to vote 'Yes' in an independence referendum.
     Herein lies the reason for Angus Robertson's oily words of welcome for John Major's backing of fiscal autonomy. He and his Bute House superior know quite well that a more sympathetic electoral case can be made in Scotland for a large transfer of financial powers from London to Edinburgh than can be made for outright independence. Having possession of the knowledge, however, makes the task of delivering such a compromise no less easy.
     The obvious initial line to take is that it's a stepping stone to the final goal of independence. The problem here is that there may be a significant number of nationalist MSPs who would settle for the fiscal powers transfer...full stop. Large sections of the grassroots membership will undoubtedly take a different view with the most extreme selecting the lamp posts from which to swing their 'quisling' colleagues. So how is Alex going to square the circle?
     Henry McLeish came out for Scottish Labour backing fiscal autonomy just a week or two before Major had his Damascene conversion. The problem there is that Henry also 'warned Labour against a joint campaign with the Tories' (Scotsman 27 June). Our shrewd first minister knows that enemies divided are easier to defeat than those united, but he faces in his own party a potential split over 'devo max' and independence. How can he campaign for the former, alongside influential Labour and Tory figures, while still arguing for the latter, which is after all the stated goal of his party? A jockey astride two horses? A tipster as talented as Alex wouldn't bet on that one.

 

Dick Mungin is a consultant based in the Highlands