.

Kenneth Roy

The expert view is wrong.
These deaths could
have been prevented

Bob Cant

What does
'Tutti Frutti'

say to us now?


6

John Cameron

The great 'Chariots
of Fire' was the
purest hokum

4

7

Andrew Hook

Down with
everything: the new
American mantra

5

7

Ronnie Smith

Tanned and smiling,
Mr Blair arrives
among us

5

7

Islay McLeod

Villages of
Scotland:
(3) Thornhill

5

31.01.12
No. 507

Alan Fisher

The Florida primary is always an important point in the presidential nomination process in the US. But after Newt Gingrich's surprising turnaround win in South Carolina, it now takes on added significance.
     It is here – in what will be a key battleground state in November's general election – that the former speaker of the US House of Representatives' sudden emergence as a genuine contender may be validated. Or it will be where Mitt Romney will try to rebuild the aura of inevitability around his nomination which was so dramatically punctured just a week ago.
     For the moment, the advantages seem to stack up with Romney. His campaign is large, well co-ordinated and very well-funded. He had two good debate performances during the week, hammering Newt Gingrich on a number of tough issues. Gingrich, the self-proclaimed 'best debater in the party' looked bemused by the guile of Romney's barbs and has since seen his opinion polls ratings drop. 
     The first three contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, have produced three different winners. Campaigning in Florida is different. Firstly, there's the size of the electorate.  More people turned out to vote for Jacksonville's mayor last year than turned out in all of Iowa's caucuses. Two million registered Republicans can vote in what is a closed primary. That means no independents or Democrats can influence the result. It will give a much more accurate picture of where Republican support really lies and can shape the views of voters in contests to come. 
     Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, Florida is incredibly diverse and much more reflective of the voters across America as a whole. Adam Smith, political editor of the Tampa Bay Times, told me how the candidates essentially have to wage several campaigns in the one state and not just appeal to a narrow slice of the electorate. 'It's rural, it's urban, it's suburban, it's moderate' it’s evangelical, and for the first time it's a significant number of Hispanic Republicans. You're really getting a good cross-section of America here.'
     In Iowa, candidates had months to troop round, shake hands, talk with voters and build up a personal relationship with local leaders who could deliver results. It worked for Santorum who came from nowhere to top the poll. In New Hampshire, Mitt Romney's personal ties secured victory while in South Carolina, Gingrich's strong campaign message turned the votes in his favour. In Florida, a combination of all three is required. And that has to be topped off with TV ads and airtime. 
     The Republican Party is back in Tampa in August for its convention.  By then we should know who the nominee is for president and just how important this state was in that process.




New Zealanders know

where they stand.

Do we?

 

Douglas Wood

 

Photograph by the author


An independent country of four and a half million people, larger in land area than the UK, and which never likes to miss an opportunity to put one over on its big neighbour. The neighbour is not all that close, some 1,500 miles distant. Yes, we're talking about New Zealand.
     The first impression looking out of the airport window and seeing windswept trees, tussocky grass and some scattered buildings is a similarity with home. And that was a continuing theme. Cars driving on the left; a familiar landscape of fields, fences, cows, horses – and street names like Manse Road. If only we could have a similar climate.
     Our world of politics demands that we have to know whether we think of ourselves as British or Scottish. But when the petrol pump attendant inquires where you come from you don't find yourself saying 'I'm from the UK'. I assume I am no different from most in these situations by saying that I come from Scotland. Not only does it flow off the tongue more easily than any of the alternatives, it is likely to provoke a more positive reaction – but not so on this occasion.
     Initially there was a subdued silence. Then, after a few moments: 'Your team's been weak for quite a long time now. Not what it used to be'. The rugby world cup had finished a few weeks before and was still the all-consuming topic on people's minds. The remark came as a bit of a reality check. Back home we had been led to believe that there were positives in how Scotland had performed in losing to Argentina and then England. Clearly that counts for nothing on the radar of a New Zealander. I could only acknowledge the sympathy and agree.
     Travelling around the country it is apparent that the economy depends considerably on cattle and sheep farming, wine production, fruit growing, and indeed tourism to an increasing extent. No doubt there are other less visible contributors. It was interesting to see quite a number of deer farms – apparently there is demand for venison – and also fields with llamas, presumably for their wool. But a great many goods have to be imported, delivered by countless container ships.
     An awareness of isolation is never far away, in many areas exaggerated by the sparseness of population. Away from the Auckland conurbation which has about 40% of the country's population the main roads are generally very quiet. A recent solution for traffic congestion on the Auckland harbour bridge was to build an extra lane onto each side of the existing bridge – rather aptly referred to in road reports as the 'clip-ons'.

 

Who would be our competitors and how might we fare in comparison?
Would we be dependent in any way on others in seeking to achieve these things? What do we do that is world class?


     The national elections in late November provided some fascinating moments. Media coverage was very similar to our own – televised leaders' debates, a focus on alleged gaffes, prominent players caught out by rogue microphones, and so on. The issues were similar too: whether policies would grow the economy or merely grow the economies of other countries; those who wanted to build more hydro-schemes and wind farms, and those who wished to protect the environment.
     Alongside the general election New Zealanders voted in a referendum on the voting system. It wasn't a simple yes-no question. Voters were asked if they wished to keep the mixed member proportional voting system – very similar to the Holyrood arrangement – or change to another system; and if the country was to change from MMP, which one of four alternative systems they would prefer. An interesting format for designing a referendum question. However, the most impressive aspect of the whole election process was that polling was from 9am to 7pm on a Saturday, with most of the results declared by 10.30pm that evening, coalition deals sorted on Sunday and normal business resuming on Monday.
     Returning to the big neighbour. One morning the television news programme had a report on a cricket test where South Africa had scuttled out Australia for the kind of total the All Blacks can comfortably muster in a game of rugby. The news presenter was clearly enjoying the moment, and turning to the sports correspondent said: 'I don't think we caught that last bit of the report, could you repeat the score for us?'. Some two months after the RWC final, All Blacks bunting was still to be seen on gate posts and farm buildings, by the roadside or flapping from car windows. Arguably it is New Zealand's biggest brand of all. It would have been a national catastrophe if they had not beaten France in the final.
     A short period away brings a fresh perspective to domestic issues and a realisation that our independence debate should move on to the bigger picture. The various protagonists need to talk about the industries, products and activities that would generate Scotland's wealth, where the markets for them will be and how we would reach them. Who would be our competitors and how might we fare in comparison? Would we be dependent in any way on others in seeking to achieve these things? What do we do that is world class? Are there things we have pride in that we are renowned for?
     It is evident that New Zealanders are working hard to keep existing products attractive in distant markets, and to be creative in developing new products and new markets. They are appalled by what is happening in Europe, and are looking to Asia increasingly. While we in Scotland may want to stand on our own two feet, we do need to be confident that there is a place where we can stand.

 

Douglas Wood is a chartered financial planner and former
academic registrar