The election result

was not all it has

since been painted

Kenneth Roy: The aftermath (1)

 

Another one gone. I am away at the moment; I have a conference to chair. But texts from home keep me up to date with all the latest resignations.
     What next? By the time I get back, I expect Patrick Harvie will have decided that, in view of the Greens' disappointing performance, he has stepped down, allowing his only parliamentary colleague to stand against herself. The only contest of any interest, however, perhaps the only vote of consequence we are likely to see in the Scottish Parliament in the next four years, is the hot competition for the security of the presiding officer's chair. What fun it would be if all the fallen leaders could be prevailed upon to nominate themselves for this post. Unusually in Scotland, it would guarantee an election in which there was some uncertainty about the outcome.
     As long ago as last Thursday, I wrote a piece for this space which ended with the prophetic words: 'Let the hysteria begin'. It is gratifying to know that my advice is taken so seriously. By the weekend, Scotland on Sunday's editorial was capturing the revolutionary fervour of the moment: 'Alex Salmond and the SNP have united the country in a way not seen for years, a way that has meant people have shrugged off old tribal loyalties in the hope of a brighter future'.
     Oh, really? Is that so? I am not sure whether dull facts are still allowed in my native country, or whether they have been shrugged off by the Scottish media in the hope of a brighter future – or indeed any future – for their own circulations. But if there is still a place for dull facts, if they are not already regarded as a bit subversive and off-message, I have a few to share with you. If, on the other hand, and thank heaven there is always another hand in journalism, you would rather not have the new and exciting Scotland compromised in this way, turn away now.

 

     Dull fact number 1 is that, in the Scottish parliamentary election of May 2003, Labour had a constituency vote of 659,879; in May 2007, 648,374; in May 2011, 630,461. In the three elections of the 21st century, the turnout has been consistent (consistently poor) and the Labour vote, in the face of the SNP's brio and the personal appeal of Alex Salmond, has remained fairly steady.
     Where, then, is the evidence for the claim that people have shrugged off old tribal loyalties? The Labour tribe, traditionally the largest in Scotland, is remarkably intact in all the circumstances. Most people who voted Labour in 2007 dutifully did so again in 2011, despite the appalling ineptness of the campaign conducted by their party. Contrary to the Scottish media's assurances, which have already become a form of received wisdom, there was no mass desertion from Labour. The loss of support was piffling. The Labour tribe, though badly bruised, will survive to fight another day. It is the way of this particular tribe. Anthropologists have noted its resilient qualities in the past.
     Dull fact number 2 is that, in the Scottish parliamentary election of May 2003, the Liberal Democrats had a constituency vote of 286,150; in May 2007, 326,232; in May 2011, 157,714. Since there was no significant defection from Labour, it follows that most of the Lib Dems’ 168,518 lost sheep must have gone to the SNP. The nationalists also benefited from the sharp decline in the Conservative vote from 334,743 in 2007 to 276,652 in 2011.
     Now follows, not a dull fact, but a dull speculation. I suggest that most Liberal Democrat voters who abandoned the party, shrugging off their old tribal loyalty, were not doing so in the hope of a brighter future for Scotland. They were doing so because they are as mad as hell with young Mr Clegg and wished to send a message to the coalition government. Once Mr Clegg has done the decent thing and joined the Conservative Party, allowing the Liberal Democrats to appoint a less opportunistic individual as their leader, it would not be in the least surprising if the middle classes of North East Fife and Edinburgh South chucked out the nationalists, turned their backs on a brighter future, and returned with some relief to their former allegiance. Of course I can't be sure. It's just a hunch.
     The SNP polled extremely well last Thursday. The number of people who voted for the party was 902,915, only 5,477 fewer than voted for Labour in its heyday under Donald Dewar in May 1999, when the turnout was a lot higher. But – dull fact number 3 coming up – only 22.6% of the electorate voted SNP in last week's election, while 26.7%, spurning Scotland on Sunday's offer of a brighter future, insisted on voting for the boring old unionist parties. A 'united country'? The dull facts suggest otherwise.
    That's quite enough dull facts for one day. Sadly, I may have to bring you a few more tomorrow.

 

Kenneth Roy is editor of the Scottish Review