The fallout

Last in the series on the aftermath
of the general election

Fear rules

Mairianna Clyde

Edinburgh South (my constituency) was, and remains, a three way marginal which the Lib Dems were predicted to take. It was one of the more exciting contests. In each of the last two elections since 1997 (2001 and 2005) the Lib Dem vote was increasing by leaps and bounds, steadily eating into Nigel Griffiths' comfortable Labour majority. The trend was unmistakable. By the last election only 405 votes separated Labour from the Lib Dems, though the Conservatives (who used to hold this seat) were close behind in third place. The SNP have no purchase here, and are a miserable fourth well behind the Conservatives.
     After a tense recount it emerged at 4.50am on Friday as the closest marginal in Scotland – with the new candidate, young councillor Ian Murray (Labour) narrowly securing the seat by a 316 majority, a reduction of 89 votes.
     The Lib Dems, passionate to the last, after weeks and weeks of some extremely hard work campaigning in this constituency, had succeeded in reducing Labour's majority by a measly handful of votes.
     If the Lib Dem breakthrough could not happen in Edinburgh South, where in Scotland is it going to happen?
     If elections turn on the merits of candidates and the efforts of their campaign team, then Edinburgh South bucks the trend. Local campaigning made absolutely no difference here.
     The Labour campaign (at least in my ward of the constituency) was lacklustre, and the Conservatives (whose vote shrank slightly by 1%) were likewise nowhere to be seen. The Lib Dems however sent me mail every day for three weeks; actually canvassed my doorstep; and in the final hours, called to see if I had voted (and if I needed a lift). You could not fault them for passion, dedication, or organisation. That alone should have inspired confidence.
     Ian Murray, the new Labour candidate, was parachuted in at the last minute after Nigel Griffiths announced he would no longer be standing. He is a local councillor in the Liberton/Gilmerton ward, an outlying district of the constituency where most of the council housing is to be found, and relatively unknown to most voters.
     
If there is such a thing as 'middle Scotland' this ward is it. Edinburgh South is a complex constituency which houses some very affluent late Victorian villas currently the homes to authors Alexander McCall-Smith, J K Rowling (who said she would vote Labour) and Ian Rankin. Napier University has two campuses here at Merchiston and Craiglockhart. There are a high number of graduates and swathes of three and four bedroom Victorian tenements, mainly owner-occupied, but with a high percentage of transients, students and young professionals flat-sharing because they are unable to get on to the property ladder.
     Despite disparities in wealth and education across the constituency the majority of middle class residents are centre left in their politics. Many of the 'affluent' are public sector professionals who also vote Labour. They have their insecurities. Many of my neighbours are working single mothers (divorced). Yet Murray's campaign, like that of his predecessor's, Nigel Griffiths, concentrated on that part of the constituency where most council tenants are to be found.
     There was no real difference from 2005. Labour and the Lib Dems increased their vote by just over 1% and the Conservatives vote shrank by the same.
     Draw what conclusions from this as you will. The conclusion I draw is that nothing in this educated, mixed, but relatively affluent constituency has changed. The TV debates, the reams of print, 'Duffygate', immigration, the banking crisis, the Twittering on the blogosphere – nothing has acted to shift opinion. If I were to hazard a guess: fear rules. This was the mood I picked up when asking my neighbours how they would vote. There was absolutely no mood for change or experimentation but great fear about what the Tory axe would do. Public sector workers who form the core of Scotland's middle class do not want any cut-backs in public services and are terrified for their jobs and their mortgages.
     So I conclude that Gordon Brown's strategy of putting fear into his core voters about what a Conservative majority might mean seems to have paid off, given the very high percentage of 'middle Scotland' that is employed in the public sector.
     'Heads down, and stay there'.

Mairianna Clyde is a lecturer and writer