Election Diary
Old Tory

R D Kernohan
Sleepless nights

Thursday 15 April
Nothing matters today but the first debate. But while waiting I read a bland Radio Times interview with Brown. We've debased our politics when a premier is expected to know who Cheryl Cole is and choose the simpering Graham Norton over the revolting Jonathan Ross. I fear Cameron might be no better next week and fondly recall Enoch Powell treating 'Desert Island Discs' to a succession of Wagner's greatest hits.
     And so, after 'Coronation Street's glimpses of broken Britain, to a good and decorous hour-and-a-half. It didn't need to be great to be good, for it broke new ground. Whether it will seem so good after another two long instalments I don't know. Clegg had the greatest opportunity and took it in style. The LibDem is a natural salesman from whom I wouldn't buy a car. He told us too often how straight he was with us. Cameron is best when fired up, but really needs to do something about that worried frown. Brown avoided being ponderous yet sometimes seemed patronising.
     But the debate hammered home once again the way the way Labour's devolution, as exploited by the SNP, has made much general election debate irrelevant to Scotland.
     There's not much point in worrying about the first polls. We'll see how things go after the next day or two.
 
Friday 16 April
Slept badly thanks to Clegg's good showing. On reflection I decide that an even better and more surprising showing was the debate itself, despite the superficiality of much of the argument and the difficulty of sustaining real debate in this format. Maybe it's just the freshness and attraction of novelty. But I wonder how the format will evolve. There's something unnatural about a politely silent audience.
     I'm more amused than cheered by the Sun, which demonstrates some polemical contortionism in combining its YouGov debate poll on Clegg's good showing with every kind of kicking it can contrive for Brown, short of calling him a Scotch git. Cameron retains his heroic role under the strange designation of 'Tory Guv'. There's something similar, coarsely slanted the other way, in the Mirror and Record but done with less skill and joie de vivre. But it's clear the ba' really is up on the slates. The YouGov poll has the LibDems in second place. If Cameron can't fight back convincingly he doesn't deserve to be prime minister.
     When I started this diary I heartily wished polling day was almost on us. Now I'm glad there's a fortnight and more still to go.
 
Saturday 17 April
Not quite a sleepless night but I devoted part of it to getting in order   thoughts I've had since Cameron reshaped Conservatism. The first duty of a Tory leader is to get office and power – though office and power aren't always the same thing. But Britain is a less conservative country than it was when Blair desocialised the Labour Party. One reason the Liberals have an opportunity is that we almost all want to be liberals now. Hence the hounding of Chris Grayling for talking common sense about homosexuals and B and B's. Hence the weakness of the tax proposals about marriage allowances. Hence the preference to debate immigration as a matter of 'pressure on services'.
     All political conservatism is about adjustment to inevitable change and, where possible, guiding its direction and resisting undesirable changes. Historically British Conservatism has combined that philosophical basis with much empiricism and opportunism. Today's climate of opinion, especially in the media, means that to win an election you have to emphasise the opportunism and go easy on the philosophy.
     Conservatism also used to profit from 'deference'. I suppose Labour did too for those who believed in the 'movement' and accepted chancers and careerists as a price for what they thought progress. But deference is out of fashion in the Western world, for Popes as well as politicians and bankers. More important, deference, which I prefer to call proper regard or respect, has to be earned and sustained. It doesn't go with duckhouses and dubious mortgages. (Nor does it go with some past sources of Liberal funds. One of Cameron's mistakes on Thursday was not to press home that point.)
     The weekend polls are coming in, confirming the startling trend to the Liberals (whom I prefer to call by that historic name) with a couple of lesser-known ones putting them in the lead. Projections, not worth much at this stage, show Labour as the largest party even if third. Will things get worse before they get better? 

Sunday 18 April
To church. Man's chief end is neither to fight elections nor worry about them. We have some trivial modern hymns but get singing the great paraphrase (from Peter's first letter) that declares 'we walk by faith as strangers here'. The election is only mentioned in an impeccably phrased intercessory prayer – for the candidates, but also that they may be honest and truthful.
     After decades in this Edinburgh congregation I don't know the voting patterns of most of my friends and colleagues. We're a restrained lot. But as the kirk skails I exchange a few comfortable words with an ex-chairman of the West Edinburgh Tories. We lament very unfavourable constituency boundaries but I have a further grumble. Because Labour insisted on having so many MSPs I'm in the old constituency for Holyrood elections but decanted Leithward for Westminster purposes. It's a mess that Blair and Brown shouldn't have allowed, but they wanted jobs for the boys and girls.
     Later I have comfortable words on the polls from a Liberal, not much of a churchgoer but still marked by a Presbyterian upbringing. 'It'll never last', he says. But it has lasted enough to let his lot edge ahead on YouGov tonight.
     I've also noted the few Scottish polls but don't react much. I'm keen but don't yet trust them much more than I did long ago when pioneering private Tory ones. Possibly there hasn't been enough experience and competition to refine the techniques in the way UK polls have done. But clearly Liberals have got a boost and the SNP don't seem to threaten Labour.
 
Monday 19 April
Never have the chattering classes had so much to chatter about. Never have they had the opportunities the internet now gives them. I've been reading the blogs. Maybe the French Revolution felt like this in its early stages. Certainly we have a lot of web-Wordsworths who think it's bliss to be alive and to be young is 'very heaven'. I can't rule out the possibility that we're having a revolution in British politics but I'm not convinced. Nor am I sure who's heading for the guillotine. 
     Yet the papers' election coverage seems surprisingly unexcited and unexciting. It's partly because the volcanic air-travel shut-down is a bigger, if baffling, immediate story but more than that – perhaps pause for breath after weeks of slogging and then sudden sensation, perhaps a feeling that this is a phoney war till the last 10 days.
     The polls aren't great but I seem to have taken my own advice about steady nerves and relaxation.