Back in the 1960s, I took my young family to live in an underdeveloped country. It wasn't exactly what I had expected of the USA, but I found that there were places in the richest country in the world that suffered from poverty and were as poor as almost anywhere. They ranged from districts in huge cities to whole states, and West Virginia was certainly one of these.
America, the land of the free, had allowed that freedom to extend to the freedom to live and die in extreme poverty. Subsistence farming and unemployment characterised much of the state. Big corporations sliced the tops off the Appalachian Mountains to dig out the coal and export it in barges along the Monongahela River to feed Carnegie's great steel works in Pittsburg. As in many other countries, including Wales where I was to work next, local valuable resources were exported to fill pockets elsewhere and the working population subsisted on pickings.
Another two memories of my time in West Virginia are relevant to this. The first was how relatively fat the students in the university were, and the second was the start of a craze called jogging, brought to my notice by faculty members who in the snowy winter would come into our laboratory to run for an hour at lunchtime on the treadmill. The fat students were storing energy and the professors were using it up purposelessly, or rather without a productive purpose, while expending our laboratory's electricity.
It's all about energy. It comes from the sun squeezing hydrogen to form helium and has been shown by Einstein to be the product of mass and the speed of light squared, combining in one formula weight, distance and time. As we eat, we provide our bodies with the molecular energy required to live and work, and ultimately all this food comes directly or indirectly, through other animals, from plant photosynthesis. On average, everyone across the world requires about 2,500 food calories daily which equates to about 4kWh of energy. The more physical exercise we take, the more is required, but any excess over requirement is converted to fat. This is the body's store for times of starvation or harvest failure, but for most of us is a rather undesirable side effect of greed.
The professors knew this and tried to control it by vigorous exercise, but most of the population in USA did not – even the students in those days had cars, and the average American now consumes some 15,000 kJ (3,750 kcal or 25.5kWh) energy each day. Where America leads, others follow, and over the years since returning to the UK two years later, I noticed our students were getting fatter and got fatter myself. It takes a lot of exercise to get rid of fat once laid down. In the UK, we consume on average about 10,000 kJ (2,500 kcal or 16.3kWh) daily, roughly double the consumption of the average Asian or African.
All this fat in the Western world comes ultimately through agriculture of both plants and animals. Michael Berners-Lee and his colleagues have traced the path of global food production from farm to our tables (
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.310). In terms of energy for each person on the planet (in food calories or kcal, 1,000 of which equal 1.63kWh), it has been estimated that the world uses crops containing 9,747 kcal per person per day of which about two thirds go directly into our food and one third into animal fodder. Energy is lost from this total on the pathway through harvest, trading, and distribution, but the greatest loss is of about 5,500 kcal per person per day, three fifths of the available total, in the extremely inefficient process of feeding, rearing and slaughtering animals. After these losses, each of us in the world's population ends up on average with 2,792 kcal daily of which we eat 2,531 kcal, as opposed to the desirable average food intake of around 2,353 kcal. The rest we throw away. In simple terms, three quarters of the calories in the food crops we produce are wasted.
Thus, agriculture at present produces more than enough potential food for everyone, although through an extraordinarily wasteful process. However, its distribution is grossly skewed to the richest countries and the wealthiest people, and the world population is likely to continue growing unless limited by starvation and disease epidemics, as Malthus feared. We are also confronted by the fact that agriculture produces roughly a quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane, oxides of nitrogen, and CO2, from animal husbandry, use of fertilisers, rice paddies and turnover of soil.
The world population is expected to increase to around 9.7 billion by 2050, and Berners-Lee et al used this figure to estimate that a more than doubled (116% increase in) food production would be required without radical change in human behaviour to feed this expanded population. In view of the likely unavailability of land to provide for this, it is obvious that the most efficient path for mankind is to reduce the waste in the system. This radical change would require replacement of most meat and dairy products by plant-based food, diversion of some animal food to humans, and reduction of waste at all stages of the process.
There are many implications of this for farming, including rice production in the East and animal husbandry in the West, but the overall implication is that return to a more sustainable way of life is necessary to put a brake on climate change. The alternative implication we would have to face is both profoundly worrying and easy to understand – increasing starvation among the poor as land yields to rising temperature and drought, dispute over territory, migration and warfare. We are seeing the start of this already today in some less fortunate regions, notably Yemen and Afghanistan, and hints of what may come in the rise of the radical right in USA and Europe.
When confronted with worldwide problems, the question arises as to what individuals can do themselves that will make any impact. To turn this round, it is reasonable to ask what will happen if everyone does nothing, and I have answered that in the last paragraph. Farmers in Europe are now aware of the issues, and many are taking steps, encouraged by governments, to reduce emissions and return to a more sustainable pattern of food production. More trees are being planted in countries aware of the issues (China is leading in this) and more land is being returned to nature. The young are aware of the issue and are increasingly changing to vegetarian diets.
According to commercial surveys, about 7% of the UK population say they are vegetarian or vegan and another 5% pescatarian. What we can all start to do is eat less meat and have vegetarian days. This will promote a healthier lifestyle and prepare us for hard times ahead.
Some of you will remember food rationing; during the war, each of us was allowed only to have 4oz (113g) of bacon and to spend 14p (now worth £2.50) per week on meat, but unlimited vegetables and fruit (which were often scarce). Dairy products, save milk, were also severely restricted. We've been there before.
My time in the USA showed the reality of maldistribution of wealth and resources, and the consequences of overconsumption. I'm afraid our country has been following the same path. One of the most frequent New Year resolutions is to lose weight. It is also usually the first to be broken. It would be better to resolve to move gradually to a more sustainable diet with less meat and dairy, and to accompany it with a bit more exercise. Apart from the personal health benefits, it will also make it easier for us to cater for the requirements of our vegetarian and vegan children and grandchildren when we are able to have them round for a meal once again.
Anthony Seaton is Emeritus Professor of Environmental and Occupational Medicine at Aberdeen University and Senior Consultant to the Edinburgh Institute of Occupational Medicine. The views expressed are his own
